Last update on 2024-06-28

Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) - Dividend Analysis (Final Score: 3/8)

Comprehensive analysis of Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) dividend stability; scored 3/8 on dividend criteria, providing insights for income-focused investors.

Short Analysis - Dividend Score: 3

We're running Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) against the 8-criteria scoring system to evaluate the performance and stability of a company's dividend policy.

For those who are interested in delving deeper into the specifics, the subsequent section provides a comprehensive exploration of the criteria.

Dividend Yield Higher than the Industry Average?

dividend yield

With a current yield of 4.7576%, Gecina Nom's dividend yield is noticeably below the industry average of 6.18%. Over the last 20 years, the company has seen significant fluctuations in its dividend yield, from a high of 10.7794% in 2008 to lows around 3.31% in 2017. In 2023, the yield, while still sizeable, aligns more closely with industry trends. Since 2008, the trend shows a decline in dividend yield, which could be interpreted as less appealing for income-focused investors. Coupled with fluctuating stock prices, Gecina Nom's lower yield can be seen negatively compared to the industry standard. Therefore, the trend is somewhat unfavorable, especially if the objective is to secure yield-focused investments.

Average annual Growth Rate higher than 5% in the last 20 years?

The dividend growth rate measures the annualized percentage rate of growth that a particular stock's dividend undergoes over a period. A growth rate higher than 5% can indicate a healthy, expanding company, with strong future prospects. This is important because it can signal to investors that the company is generating sufficient earnings and free cash flow to consistently reward shareholders.

The dividend ratios from 2003 to 2023 for Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) show a highly fluctuating pattern, with some years showing negative values and others showing a dramatic rise, such as in 2018 with a ratio of +56.5764. Analyzing this data, we can see that the dividend ratio does not have a consistent growth pattern; rather, it has been erratic. Given such volatility and the average dividend ratio of approximately 1.32, it is fair to conclude that the dividend growth rate over the past 20 years is not stable. Therefore, Gecina Nom does not demonstrate a dividend growth rate higher than 5% consistently, illustrating an unreliable dividend earnings prospect which might be a red flag for dividend-focused investors.

Average annual Payout Ratio lower than 65% in the last 20 years?

The average payout ratio measures the proportion of earnings a company pays to shareholders in the form of dividends. A lower payout ratio, specifically under 65%, is generally seen as more sustainable because it indicates the company retains more earnings for growth, debt repayment, or contingencies.

The provided payout ratios spanning from 2003 to 2023 show mixed results, with some years having zero or negative ratios, and others exceeding the 65% threshold significantly. The overall average payout ratio is 48.349%, which is quite healthy and indicates generally sustainable dividend payouts. However, significantly high ratios in years like 2012 (121.9884%), 2013 (88.4885%), 2014 (103.69%), and more recent years (2020 and 2022) would have raised red flags during those periods. These spikes may indicate periods of low earnings, influencing high payout ratios. Despite these anomalies, the average being below 65% is promising, implying a general trend towards sustainable dividend distributions.

Dividends Well Covered by Earnings?

Dividends being well covered by earnings ensure financial stability and sustainable payout ratios.

In analyzing Gecina Nom's dividend cover ratio over the years from 2003 to 2023, it's evident that the coverage fluctuates significantly. Years like 2005 through 2007 showed some stability with positive coverages, but years like 2008 and 2009 saw negative covers due to negative earnings. The most recent years, such as 2020, indicated solid coverage with ratios above 1, e.g., 2.514 in 2020. This trend demonstrates a variable but generally improving ability to cover dividends by earnings, though periods of challenges warrant caution.

Dividends Well Covered by Cash Flow?

Dividends well covered by cash flow means that the company's generated cash flow should adequately cover its dividend payouts. It is vital because it determines the sustainability of dividend payments.

The coverage of dividends by free cash flow (FCF) for Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) has fluctuated significantly over the years. This ratio is a crucial metric because when FCF is more than the dividends paid out, it suggests that the dividends are sustainable. Negative values in early years (2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013) indicate periods where the company's dividends were not covered by its free cash flow, raising concerns about dividend sustainability during those times. However, starting from 2007, considerable positive ratios surface, particularly in recent years such as 2019 (5.84), 2020 (1.72), 2021 (3.22), 2022 (3.40), and 2023 (2.71), demonstrating improved dividend coverage. The trend appears positive with consistent coverage above 1 in recent years, which suggests that Gecina Nom has enhanced its capacity to cover dividends through its free cash flows, making its dividend yield more reliable and attractive for investors.

Stable Dividends Since the Company Began Paying Dividends?

The stability of dividend payments over a significant period, such as 20 years, provides a reliable income source for investors. An ideal measure is ensuring that the dividend per share does not drop by more than 20% in any given year during this period.

Analyzing the data for Gecina Nom (GI6A.F), the dividend per share has predominantly shown stability since 2008. There are no instances where the dividends per share dropped by more than 20% consecutively for 20 years. This signals a strong commitment to maintaining shareholder returns and indicates robust financial health. One significant dip did occur from 7.95 in 2018 to 5.5 in 2019 (approx. 30%), but beyond this, dividends were relatively consistent. Overall, this trend is positive for income-seeking investors.

Dividends Paid for Over 25 Years?

Examining whether a company has paid dividends consistently for over 25 years can be a key indicator of its financial stability and commitment to returning value to its shareholders. This is especially relevant for income-focused investors who prioritize stable and predictable dividend payouts.

Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) has not paid dividends consistently for over 25 years. As per the given data, Gecina Nom started paying dividends in 2008, with a brief history of 15 years. This trend doesn't meet the 25-year criterion, which might indicate limitations in its long-term dividend reliability compared to companies meeting this benchmark. However, since 2008, the company has shown growth and consistency in its dividend payouts, indicating a positive trend in recent history. Specifically, the dividends per share have increased from €5.01 in 2008 to €7.95 in 2018, although they have slightly decreased to €5.3 in recent years. This mixed trend suggests that while the company hasn't yet met the 25-year mark, recent performance has been relatively stable and potentially promising for future growth.

Reliable Stock Repurchases Over the Past 20 Years?

Explain the criterion for Gecina Nom (GI6A.F) and why it is important to consider

The trend of repurchasing shares over the past 20 years for Gecina shows a somewhat inconsistent pattern. While there were specific years such as 2004, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2019, and 2020 where notable repurchase activities took place, the overall trend has not been stable enough to consider it highly reliable. More importantly, by 2023, the share count shows as 0, which might be an error in the data. An average repurchase rate of -4.0852 over the 20 years suggests a net decrease in shares, representing shareholder value creation. However, the years without reliable repurchases overshadow the years when the company repurchased shares, suggesting inconsistency. This irregularity may raise concerns among investors seeking steady repurchase strategies as a sign of the management's confidence in company value. A robust and regular share repurchase policy would typically support share price and be indicative of a company's ongoing commitment to returning capital to its shareholders. Fluctuations and inconsistencies, therefore, can be detrimental to investor confidence, especially paired with the data inconsistencies noticed in 2023.